Incidence rate in market research & How does it mpact on your study.

Behind every effective market research project lies one powerful number: the incidence rate. It determines the realism of your research, its cost, and its smooth execution.

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Even if you are studying tech-savvy consumers in Singapore, B2B professionals in logistics, or young families in heartland estates, the incidence rate tells you how likely it is that the people you want to reach actually exist, and how easy (or difficult) they are to find.

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For marketers, researchers, and business leaders, mastering this concept can mean the difference between a study that delivers clear, actionable insights and one that struggles with feasibility or overspends on recruitment.

What is the incidence rate?

Before knowing how the incidence rate shapes a research study, it’s essential to understand what it actually means. 

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In market research, the incidence rate helps you estimate how familiar your target audience is with a given population.  It indicates the likelihood of finding the right respondents. It’s the people who genuinely fit your study’s criteria.

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Basic definition and formula

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The incidence rate (IR) in market research refers to the percentage of people within a target population who qualify for a study based on its screening criteria. In simpler terms, it measures how common or rare your target audience is among those you approach for participation.

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The general formula is:

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Formula

IR = (Number of qualified respondents ÷ Number of total screened respondents) × 100

Explanation

Calculates how many people from your sample fit your target profile

Example

If 200 out of 1,000 respondents qualify, the incidence rate is (200 ÷ 1,000) × 100 = 20%

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In practice, an incidence rate of 20% means that only one in five respondents meets your study criteria. The lower the incidence rate, the more challenging and costly it becomes to reach the right audience.

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Contexts and types of incidence relevant in market research

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Not all incidence rates are created equal. Depending on the scope and design of your study, there are several ways to interpret or apply incidence:

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• General population incidence: Measures how common a characteristic is within a broad population, such as “Singaporeans who use digital banking apps”.
• Subgroup or niche incidence: Focuses on smaller, more specific segments. For example, “SME owners who use cross-border payment platforms”.
• Behavioural or conditional incidence: Applies when the qualifying behaviour is less common, such as “consumers who purchased an electric car in the past 6 months”.

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In Singapore, where the total population stands at around 6 million, understanding these distinctions is vital. 

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For example, a 30% smartphone usage incidence among seniors may sound small, but given Singapore’s ageing population, that represents a significant and growing segment for marketers.

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Why incidence rate matters in market research

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Understanding the incidence rate goes far beyond numbers. It directly affects budget, timelines, and data quality, shaping the entire trajectory of your research project.

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Feasibility and cost planning

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The lower the incidence, the higher the cost per complete (CPC). Recruiting rare audiences — say, C-suite executives in logistics or consumers who use three or more fintech apps — takes more time and resources.

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For example:

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General population lifestyle study

• Estimated incidence: 50–60%
• Expected cost impact: Lower CPC

Tech early adopters

• Estimated incidence: 20–30%
• Expected cost impact: Moderate CPC

CFOs or senior managers

• Estimated incidence: 3–5%
• Expected cost impact: Very high CPC

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Impact on sample representativeness and data quality

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A realistic incidence rate ensures your final dataset reflects your target population accurately. If you overestimate incidence, you risk under-representation, which means the responses might be skewed or limited to certain respondent types.

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In contrast, underestimating incidence could lead to excessive sampling and unnecessary cost.

By aligning your incidence rate with reliable demographic or behavioural data, you improve the quality and representativeness of your findings.

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When incidence is calculated and monitored accurately, researchers can:

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• Ensure sufficient respondent diversity
• Avoid over-reliance on “professional survey takers”
• Maintain consistency in quotas and weighting schemes

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Timeline and logistics

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Your incidence rate directly influences how long data collection will take.

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• A high incidence (e.g., 70%) means you’ll find qualified respondents quickly, shortening your field period.
• A low incidence (e.g, below 10%) means longer recruitment time and possible delays.

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In Singapore, where respondent availability varies by demographic group, this becomes even more critical.

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Vendor/panel partner considerations

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Working with the right research partner or panel provider can make or break your study’s success. 

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Experienced vendors invest heavily in maintaining high-quality, balanced panels — ensuring each sample is well-profiled and incidence estimates remain accurate over time.

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When choosing a vendor, consider whether they:

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• Have locally profiled respondents in Singapore and across ASEAN
• Track historical incidence trends across categories
• Offer transparent reporting on screening success rates
• Can recommend realistic sample sizes and timelines

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How to estimate or check incidence before full deployment

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Before launching a full-scale market research study, it’s crucial to estimate your incidence rate (IR) as accurately as possible. 

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Doing so helps you anticipate feasibility, timelines, and recruitment costs, and reduces the risk of fieldwork challenges later on. There are several reliable methods for checking or refining your incidence estimate before committing resources.

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Use of historical or archival data

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If your organisation has conducted similar studies in the past, these datasets can serve as valuable benchmarks. Reviewing screening success rates and response distributions from previous research gives you a clear indication of what to expect.

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If a 2023 study on Singaporean digital banking users showed an incidence rate of 42%, you can expect a similar figure for a 2025 study, assuming population behaviour hasn’t shifted dramatically.

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Additionally, national data sources such as SingStat or data.gov.sg can provide population-level benchmarks. For example:

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Internet penetration

• Source: IMDA (2023)
• Key statistic: 99% of residents have internet access
• Relevance: Indicates high feasibility for online surveys

Smartphone ownership

• Source: SingStat (2023)
• Key statistic: 97% among adults aged 15–64
• Relevance: Supports incidence estimates for mobile app studies

Pet ownership

• Source: Locad (2024)
• Key statistic: 32% of people in Singapore own pets
• Relevance: Useful for estimating incidence in pet-related studies

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These indicators can serve as proxy data for estimating target population reach before you even screen respondents.

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Pilot or “incidence check” survey

A pilot survey, often called an “incidence check,” is a small-scale version of your main study. It helps you determine the number of respondents who actually qualify based on your screening criteria.

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For example:

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• You may initially assume that 25% of respondents are users of fitness-tracking apps.
• After conducting a pilot with 200 respondents, you find only 40 qualify — an actual incidence of 20%.
• With this insight, you can adjust budgets, recruitment timelines, or screening logic before full deployment.

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This approach saves money and ensures realistic expectations for both clients and vendors.

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Expert consultation and benchmarking

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When archival data is unavailable, consulting experienced researchers or panel providers can help establish incidence expectations.

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Experts who manage diverse survey panels have access to historical incidence trends across industries and audiences, from FMCG consumers to enterprise IT buyers.

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Benchmarking against these datasets allows you to:

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• Identify feasible audience sizes in Singapore and ASEAN.
• Anticipate recruitment challenges for niche segments.
• Adjust incentives or quotas early in the design phase.

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Adjustments for local or Singapore context

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Singapore’s compact and highly digitalised population offers both opportunities and challenges for estimating incidence.

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When refining estimates, consider:

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• Most Singapore residents are highly reachable online, which raises the incidence of digital behaviour surveys.
• Adjust screening questions to capture diverse language preferences (English, Mandarin, Malay, Tamil).
• The non-resident population stood at 1.86 million as of the end of June 2024, which can affect sample stratification for certain topics.
• Specific product categories (e.g., alcohol, luxury goods) may show lower declared incidence due to social desirability bias.

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By tailoring incidence assumptions to the local environment, you ensure data that is both accurate and culturally representative.

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Conclusion

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The incidence rate is the foundation upon which every well-designed market research study stands. It determines whether your project is feasible, cost-effective, and representative of your actual target population.

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In Singapore’s data-driven business landscape, where decision-making depends on reliable insights, accurately estimating incidence ensures that every study delivers clarity and actionable outcomes.

‍Milieu is one of the leading online survey software providers and market research agencies in Singapore, helping brands navigate complex data landscapes with confidence. Our platform simplifies estimating incidence rates, designing effective studies, and reaching the right respondents, ensuring your research has a real impact.